Top 14 Final Preview: It Seems The Brennus Is Toulon’s To Lose… Initially, at least

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posterCASTRES, FRANCE – And so, the almost but not quite entirely unpredictable Top 14 season is one match away from the end. After 186 matches, in which 7,296 points were scored – courtesy of 1,095 penalties and 591 tries, 449 of which were converted – the destiny of the Brennus rests on the outcome of a second consecutive final between Toulon and Castres.

Jonny Wilkinson's final match is this Saturday's Top 14 final against Castres in Paris

Jonny Wilkinson’s final match is this Saturday’s Top 14 final against Castres in Paris

Last week, while Castres’ players rested, Toulon faced Saracens in Cardiff in the final Heineken Cup final. His Supreme Majesty Lord Sir Jonny of Wilkinson, in his penultimate outing as a player, lifted the trophy as the Var side became only the third team in the too-brief Heineken Cup history to win back-to-back titles.

Leicester and Leinster are the other two teams, for the record.

Even as the confetti settled over the Millennium Stadium pitch, however, you can bet Wilkinson’s mind was beginning to mull over one last challenge – winning the Top 14 title this week to ensure that Toulon become the first French side to win the Heineken Cup and Top 14 titles in the same season since Toulouse in 1996.

Zealous? Probably. Speculation? Naturally. But that’s the image Wilkinson has cleverly cultivated over the years – a robotic metronome, always preparing for the next challenge – which, after Saturday, will be a role on the staff at Stade Mayol. It’s one that belies his true genius, and one that a rapidly decreasing circle of people actually believe.

Rory Kockott scored just before halftime in last year's Top 14 final

Rory Kockott scored just before halftime in last year’s Top 14 final

Coming into the final, all talk in France should have been about Wilkinson’s last game, but Mourad Boudjellal diverted attention with mystic pronouncements about club signings in 2015. He hinted that four stellar names would join the club the season after next, which promptly sent the French rugby media into an off-target feeding frenzy. They quickly came up with names like Richie McCaw and Dan Carter – and the speculation mounted.

Over at the training ground, meanwhile, the players quietly got on with the job in hand – getting ready for one last big match.

Delon Armitage's last-gasp try was little more than a consolation for Toulon in last season's Top 14 final

Delon Armitage’s last-gasp try was little more than a consolation for Toulon in last season’s Top 14 final

This match is also the culmination of a little unfinished business for Toulon. They were here last year, favourites to do the double against plucky little Castres, who had fought their way to the final – beating first Montpellier, then Clermont in the post-season play-offs. But a Rory Kockott-inspired Castres had other ideas. They won 19-14 to take the Brennus back to the Tarn on an astonishing night in Paris.

A wrong, as far as Toulon are concerned, needs righting.

Maybe they’re right. It was a genuinely surprising result. Only Castres’ fans dared dream. But a tired and mind-weary Toulon were simply outmuscled and outthought last year.

Examining the two sides’ make-up, it’s clear they couldn’t be more different.

Remi Tales and Antonie Claassen celebrate as Castres are crowned Top 14 champions in 2013

Remi Tales and Antonie Claassen celebrate as Castres are crowned Top 14 champions in 2013

Toulon, with its €33million annual budget, has signed some of the biggest names on the planet over the past six years – including Wilkinson, Matt Giteau, Bakkies Botha and Bryan Habana – and have reaped the benefits, reaching six finals in the past three years. Castres, meanwhile, with its relatively modest €16million annual budget – the ninth highest in the Top 14 – have sought out hidden talent and developed it. They signed Brice Dulin from Agen and turned him into the French fullback, and Antonie Claassen from Brive, and made him a French international too. They play their last match for Castres on Saturday before heading to Racing Metro. Even Rory Kockott , who’s staying put, first arrived in the Tarn as a medical joker.

On paper, then, the two sides couldn’t be more different. But rugby isn’t played on paper. It’s played on a pitch. With players and tactics and pride and passion.

Undoubtedly, both teams have all of the above by the bucketload. Toulon finished the season at the top of the table, and made light work of Racing Metro in the Top 14 semi-final before making lighter work of Saracens last week in the Heineken Cup final. But Castres first ended Clermont’s winning streak at Stade Marcel Michelin, then edged Montpellier in the last four to ensure they took the defence of their title all the way to the final.

This is what winning the Top 14 title means

This is what winning the Top 14 title means

Looking at the stats, Toulon really should win. They have the players. They have the power. They have the skills. And they have Jonny Wilkinson. You can be sure that not one Toulon player wants to be a member of the side that loses his last ever match.

Only, if this Top 14 season has proved anything, it has proved that when it comes down to it, stats aren’t always worth the paper they’re written on.

No one – except die-hard Castres fans – expects Castres to win the Brennus again. But, then, no one – except die-hard Castres fans – expected them to win it last year, either.

That’s it for now. Feel free to comment below, please look for and “Like” our Facebook Rugby Wrap Up Page and follow us on Twitter@ :RugbyWrapUp, Junoir Blaber, Nick Hall, James Harrington, Jamie Wall, Jaime Loyd, DJ Eberle, Cody Kuxmann, Karen Ritter, Jake Frechette and Declan Yeats, respectively.

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James Harrington... Before injury brought his rugby career to a timely end, journalist James was equally useless whether he packed down in the second row or at number 8, positions in which he represented his school and university with indistinction. The prolific one now lives in France with his journalist wife and three children and watches as much Top 14, European and international action he thinks he can get away with; justifying his obsession by claiming: "But it's all work, Honey!"

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