
CASTRES, FRANCE – Pundits beware, the final weekend of the 2014 Six Nations coincides with the Ides of March and therefore comes with few certainties.
It’s a long way from Shakespeare. But you get the point. Or, maybe, you don’t.
We know, or are at least sure to the point of knowing, that Italy will, unless something goes spectacularly wrong for England, win the wooden spoon. Last week, they were worth more than the 46-7 scoreline against Ireland suggested. They tackled their hearts out in Dublin, but ran out of puff in the face of a joyous, Brian O’Driscoll-inspired Irish team.
So, we know – or at least are almost definitely pretty certain – that England will, for much of Saturday afternoon at least, sit at top the Six Nations’ pile. What we don’t – cannot – know is whether they will be there when the final whistle blows in Paris several hours later.
We know that Wales’s hopes of a record third consecutive Six Nations crown ground to a shuddering halt in what even the most diehard Welsh fan would have to admit was a one-sided affair at Twickenham last week. It was their second defeat in this year’s Six Nations, following their 26-3 humbling in Dublin last month.
We know that this is Scott Johnson’s last match in charge of Scotland, before he hands over the reins to current Clermont coach Vern Cotter in the summer.
And we know Wales will be without Toulon-bound fullback Leigh Halfpenny, who will miss the rest of the season after dislocating a shoulder making a try-saving tackle on Luther Burrell at Twickenham. But we also know they have 11 other British Lions in the side, and there’s close to no chance of them wanting to leave the Millennium Stadium beaten for a third time in this Six Nations.
We know therefore, or as near as dammit is to swearing know, that Wales will win in Cardiff, despite Scotland’s self-proclaimed improvements in the tournament. The Scots had the beating of France in Edinburgh last weekend, but couldn’t close out the game. They were humbled by England and Ireland, and just beat Italy in Rome. A win in the Valleys is on the far side of unlikely.
What we don’t know is the margin of the predicted Welsh victory. But it could be big.
Given he came of age with a hat-trick of tries in Paris in 2000, the last time Ireland won in France, it’s somehow fitting he should sign off at the same venue.
Only… We don’t know how much is left in the old man’s tank after his emotional man-of-the-match performance in Dublin last week, or if he will be able to add to his 46 tries for his country. Expect to hear the roar from Stade de France in downtown Manhattan if he does cross the French whitewash.
We know that Leinster battering ram Cian Healy has recovered from an ankle injury and will play on Saturday. And we know rumours of a rift in the French camp are circulating. Prop Nicolas Mas stormed out of a press conference on Tuesday after a journalist asked whether the team was playing badly on purpose.
But we also know that France have claimed the Six Nations title in every year directly following a Lions tour, and – astonishingly given their form – remain in contention for the title this time heading into the final weekend.
And we know that history is against the Irish. To win the Six Nations title for the first time since the Grand Slam year of 2009, they have to win in France, something they have only done four times since the Second World War and just once since 1972.
In fact, in their last 14 encounters, Ireland’s only victory anywhere over France was on that astonishing day in Dublin back in 2009 when O’Driscoll (who else?) and Gordon D’Arcy had the Irish daring to believe their first Grand Slam in 60 years was within reach.
He warned, in particular, against dismissing the ‘world class’ Yoann Huget and his back three partners Brice Dulin and Maxime Medard.
And if you believe that, you’ll also believe that France will beat Ireland by a big enough margin to claim the 2014 Six Nations title.
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